Author: Norman E. Fenton

Norman Fenton is Professor of Risk Information Management at Queen Mary London University and is also Chief Executive Officer of Agena, a company that specialises in risk management for critical systems. Norman, who is a mathematician by training, works on quantitative risk assessment. This typically involves analysing and predicting the probabilities of unknown events using Bayesian statistical methods including especially causal, probabilistic models (Bayesian networks). This type of reasoning enables improved assessment by taking account of both statistical data and also expert judgment. Norman's experience in risk assessment covers a wide range of application domains such as legal reasoning (he has been an expert witness in major criminal and civil cases), medical trials, vehicle reliability, embedded software, transport systems, financial services, and football prediction. Norman has a special interest in raising public awareness of the importance of probability theory and Bayesian reasoning in everyday life (including how to present such reasoning in simple lay terms) and he maintains a website dedicated to this and also a blog focusing on probability and the law. Norman has published 6 books and over 120 referred articles and has provided consulting to many major companies world-wide. His current projects are focused on using Bayesian methods for improved legal reasoning and improved medical decision making. In addition to his research on risk assessment, Norman is renowned for his work in software engineering (including pioneering work on software metrics) ; his book “Software Metrics: A Practical and Rigorous Approach” has sold over 35,000 copies worldwide